Journal of Statistics: Advances in Theory and ApplicationsAuthor's: TERENCE C. MILLS
Pages: [49] - [65]
Received Date: February 22, 2012
Submitted by:
It is commonly thought that the onset of the warming trend in global temperatures began around 1970, the year that George Box and Gwilym Jenkins published their famous book “Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control”. The aim of this paper is to examine what implications relating to current debates concerning global warming can be drawn from an analysis of global temperatures using the techniques developed and proposed by Box and Jenkins. The results of the exercise serve to reinforce the view that conflicting evidence bedevils the time series analysis of the observed temperature record, thus adding further uncertainty to the empirical, if not the scientific, basis for anthropogenic global warming
ARIMA models, temperature data, forecasting, transfer functions, cointegration.
